长三角房地产价格波动与居民消费的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact on Residents Consumption of Housing Price Fluctuations in Yangtze River Delta

把房地产价值纳入消费者效用函数,通过一个两期模型,分析了房价波动对居民消费的影响机理。对长江三角洲16个城市2000～2009年面板数据的实证检验表明,房地产价格的上涨并没有明显地影响到居民的消费支出水平。通过考察房价波动对居民消费结构的影响,发现短期内的房价上涨将导致恩格尔系数上升,即从短期看房价上涨会降低长三角居民的生活水平,但影响强度很小;从长期趋势看,房价波动对长三角居民生活水平的影响不显著。

To analyze the impact mechanism of the housing price fluctuation on the residents consumption, we build a two-stage model by adapting the house value into the consumers＇ utility function. The data from the 16 cities in Yangtze River Delta during 2000 to 2009 show that housing price rising does not significantly affect the level of consumption expenditure. By examining the impact of the housing price flections on consumption structure, we find that the housing price rising leads to the Engel coefficient rising in the short term, namely housing price rising reduces the living standards of the residents in Yangtze River Delta. But it＇s just a little in strength. While in the long run, such impact is not significant.