供应链系统的复杂动力学行为研究

Complex Dynamics Behavior of a Supply Chain System

供应链系统的复杂动态特性使得供应链管理者对它的控制和管理相当困难。笔者针对啤酒游戏供应链模型的局限性,考虑制造商内部生产过程,建立采用启发式订货机制的基于Petri网的供应链系统动态模型;其次,通过模型的仿真,应用时间序列、相空间、功率谱和最大Lyapunov指数方法,定性和定量地判断系统的包括混沌在内的复杂动力学行为模式,并通过对订货策略的决策区域的搜索,得到相应参数区域内的动力学行为模式的大致分布;最后,通过分析订货策略和制造商生产能力对供应链动力学行为的影响规律,提出消除或减少供应链混沌的措施。

It is very difficult for the manager of supply chain to control and manage the complex dynamics characteristic of a supply chain system.It is necessary to analyze the regularity of complex dynamics behavior of the system and its infulence factors.First,aiming at the limitation of the supply chain model for the beer game and considering the internal production process in a manufacturer,a supply chain system dynamic model based on Petri net is built by adopting the order heuristic.Then,the complex dynamics behavior modes of the system including chaos are judged qualitatively and quantitatively by simulating the model to get the time serial,the phase space,the power spectrum and the largest Lyapunov exponential.After that,the general distribution of dynamics behavior modes in the region of parameters are obtained by searching the decision-making region of the ordering strategy.Finally,the measures for eliminating or reducing the supply chain chaos are proposed by analyzing how the ordering strategy and the production capacity of the manufacturer influence the dynamics behavior of supply chain.