人民币升值经济影响的根源及政策建议

RMB appreciation economy influence's source and policy suggestion

中国人民银行自2010年6月份重启汇改,人民币再次呈现逐步升值态势,且在可预见的未来这一趋势还将持续。在当前全球经济复苏前景不明的情况下,特别需要注意人民币升值对经济产生的负面影响,以及对策。本文依据一般均衡的分析框架,从完全竞争市场假设出发,再根据中国国情逐渐放松假设条件,发现人民币升值并不必然令我国经济受损,其根源在于普遍存在的劳动力市场分割。据此提出的政策建议是,在继续推进人民币汇率形成机制改革的同时,要通过持续政策努力来打破劳动力市场分割的局面。

Since June 2010,the People’s Bank of China restarted the reform of exchange rate regime,Chinese Yuan started appreciation step by step.However under the case that global economy recovery continues to face uncertainty,policy maker need to pay attention on the negative impacts on economic activities of Chinese Yuan appreciation and the countermeasures.In the paper,based on the economic general equilibrium framework,we find that Chinese Yuan nominal appreciation lead to economic loss in China,mainly because of the existing of labor market segmentation.Based on this analysis,the policy suggestion could be promoting the reform of exchange rate regime with integrating the dual labor market.