基于开放复杂巨系统理论的能源安全及预警研究

National Energy Security Research based on Complex Giant System

基于复杂系统理论和方法,给出能源安全的科学定义和内涵解析,提出以开放复杂巨系统理论研究能源安全问题的研究视角;建立了包括能源供给者、能源消费者、经济环境影响、社会环境影响、生态环境影响和安全调控等子系统的能源安全开放复杂巨系统,并对系统开放性、复杂性、层次性等特性进行分析;最后,利用综合集成复杂系统问题研究方法,构建了能源安全预警系统,并详细给出了系统的设计和实现方法。为国家能源安全问题的认识、分析和解决提供了理论框架和研究方法。

Based on theories and methods of complex system,the concept of energy security is defined,with its connotation analyzed and energy compound system made as its research object.Then the open giant complex system of energy security is constructed,including 6 subsystems：energy supplier,energy consumer,economic environment,social environment,ecological environment and energy security regulation,and features of the system such as openness,complexity and hierarchy are elaborated.Finally,based on research methods of meta-synthesis complex system,the early warning system of energy security is designed in detail and its implementation techniques are offered as well.With the above efforts,a set of theories and methods are recognized,to analyze and resolve problems of national energy security.