跨国粮商控制下巴西大豆在中国进口市场上的竞争潜力

Competitive Potential of Brazil Soybean in China's Import Market under Manipulation of Multinational Grain Companies

中国是世界大豆进口大国,美国、巴西和阿根廷形成了向中国出口大豆的寡头垄断格局。但由于跨国粮商对大豆产业链的控制,中国在国际大豆市场缺乏定价权,卖方寡头垄断也被弱化。追求出口利益诱使巴西与美国在中国大豆市场竞争。从巴西大豆对中国的出口潜力、定价能力和政策动向3个维度考察了在跨国粮商控制下的中国大豆进口市场上巴西与美国之间的竞争关系。研究发现:长期内巴西对中国出口的大豆数量替代美国,短期内巴西出口旺季垄断能力加强且旺季持续时间延长;巴西积极调整大豆生产和贸易政策既提高了大豆出口自主定价能力和国际竞争力,又有利于拓展中国大豆进口政策选择空间,改善中国从大豆进口中的贸易获益。最后,简要阐述了该结论蕴含的政策意义。

China is a large import country of soybean in the world.The United States,Brazil and Argentina have become the oligopolies in China＇s soybean import market.But multinational grain companies have controlled the soybean industrial chain so that China loses the pricing power in the soybean market of the world,and the oligopoly was also weakened.Seeking export benefit will induce Brazil to compete with the U.S.in China＇s soybean import market.This paper investigates the competition between Brazil and America under the control of multinational grain companies from three dimensions：export potential,pricing power and policy trend.The result shows that Brazil replaces the U.S.in the soybean quantity export to China in long-term,and in short-term,Brazil enhances monopoly power in its peak-season and extends the duration of its peak-season;the active adjustments of production and trade policies have not only promoted the pricing power and international competitiveness of Brazilian soybean export,but also helped China enrich the policy choices and improve the welfare from soybean import.Finally,this paper briefly discusses the policy implications contained in the conclusions.