多因素共同推动的中国房地产价格

Integrated Factors Push up China's House Prices

中国房地产价格的不断攀升,源于多因素的共同推动和交互作用。利率、货币流通量、人均国内生产总值、物价、土地价格和失业率融合推动房价上涨,房价又反作用于其他变量,相互反馈,共同向上运动。本文运用2000-2010年的季度数据,采用EG两步法、VAR模型、脉冲响应方差分解等方法,结果显示:土地价格对房价的直接影响不显著,这一结论反驳了当前的流行说法;利率对房价抑制只具短期作用;货币流通量、人均国内生产总值能长期拉升房价,政府必须严控货币供给,并为民间资本疏通投资渠道,才能从根本上遏制房价。

joint promotion and interaction of many factors push up Chinese house prices. Interest rates, monetary in circulation, GDP per capita, prices, land prices and the unemployment rate promote the house prices together. House prices feedback on other variables, going up together. Using the seasonal data from 2000 to 2010, through EG two step regressions, VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition, The results showed that the interest rate, currency, the price index, GDP per capita and the unemployment rate is the main factors, land price effects on house prices was not significant, this result rejects the current popular view; the interest rate effect on short term, GDP per capita and currency effect on long term. Government can control the monetary to curb house prices.