消费结构变迁拉动我国经济增长的传导机制分析——基于跨期结构式凯恩斯乘数的视角

The Inter-temporal Analysis of Structural Keynesian Multiplier Based on the Different Marginal Propensity to Consume and Consumption Structure of Different Sectors

近年来,如何调整消费结构升级带动经济增长的传导机制,促进我国经济发展方式的顺利转换已经成为当前我国经济结构调整的迫切需要。本文以最优化分析为基础,将各基础产业部门间的消费结构与边际消费倾向的差异内化于经济增长的分析之中,通过对1997-2007年投入产出表数据的测算,探讨了各基础产业部门对经济增长异质性拉动作用。要求政府在制定刺激消费的政策时,应根据不同的投资乘数效应采取多样性的政策措施。

In recent years, how to adjust the transmission mechanism between the consumption structure and economic growth and promote the development with a smooth transition has become an urgent need for restricting our economic structure in China. On the basis of the optimization analysis, this paper discusses the different consumption structure and marginal propensity to consume between the basic industries which internalized in the growth and estimates the heterogeneous simulation effect through the 1997-2007 data of input-output table. According to this multiplier effect with sectoral differences, the government should take the diversity policies in stimulating growth.