房地产投资、房地产信贷与中国经济增长

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT,REAL ESTATE LOAN AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA

本文使用中国35个大中城市1996—2007年的数据考察了房地产投资、房地产信贷与经济增长的互动关系。实证结果表明,第一,经济增长对房地产投资影响大于房地产投资对经济增长的影响。因此,一旦经济增长出现波动,将导致房地产投资剧烈波动,但房地产投资波动将引起经济增长较小波动。第二,房地产购买对经济增长的影响大于房地产开发投资;信贷对开发商比对购房者更重要。第三,经济增长对房地产信贷的影响大于房地产信贷对经济增长的影响。因此,一旦经济增长下跌,将导致房地产信贷严重萎缩。第四,房地产投资对经济增长的影响大于房地产信贷对经济增长的影响,但经济增长对房地产信贷的影响大于房地产投资对房地产信贷的影响。因此,一旦经济下滑,将严重压缩房地产信贷规模,但对房地产投资影响较小。第五,房价对房地产信贷影响大于经济增长和利率对房地产信贷的影响。一旦房价下跌,房地产信贷将严重萎缩,从而可能引发违约风险和房地产金融危机。为此,政府更应控制房价的过快增长。

Using the database of 35 large and medium cities from 1996 through 2007 in China, this paper investigates the interplay between real estate investment, real estate loan and economic growth. The results show that the impact of the economic growth upon the real estate investment is greater than that of the latter upon the former. Thereby, the variation of the economic growth will give rise to the dramatic volatility of the real estate investment, but not vice versa. Secondly, the impact of the real estate purcha- sing on the economic growth is greater than that of real estate development investment. Meanwhile, the real estate loan is more important for the developers than for real estate purchasers. Thirdly, the impact of the economic growth on the real estate loan is greater than that of the latter on the former. Therefore, the decline of the economic growth will cause real estate loan crunch. Fourthly, the influence of the real estate investment on the economic growth is greater than that of the real estate loan, but the impact of the eco- nomic growth on the real estate loan is greater than that of the real estate investment. Therefore, the eco- nomic depression will cut down the real estate loan, but will have no effect on the real estate investment. Lastly, the impact of the real estate price on the real estate loan is greater than that of the economic growth and interest rate. Accordingly, the real estate price depreciation will depress the real estate loan and lead to default risk and financial crisis. This requires the government to prevent the real estate price from increase too sharply.