建筑业与运输邮电业发展的互动效应仿真

Simulation of Interactive Effects between Construction Industry and TPT Industry

针对建筑业与运输邮电业的内在机理,根据投入产出原理,采用系统动力学方法,构建了建筑业与运输邮电业发展的动力机制和动力模型。通过我国1992—2005年建筑业、运输邮电业及宏观经济发展的历史数据,模拟和预测了我国建筑业、运输邮电业发展现状及发展趋势。在此基础上,一方面模拟并预测了增加或减少建筑业投资对建筑业和运输邮电业的影响;另一方面设定金融危机情形及加大建筑业投资的参数,模拟并预测了金融危机及加大建筑业投资对建筑业和运输邮电业的抑制及拉动效应。研究结果表明:建筑业与运输邮电业发展互动效应明显;在金融危机的情形下,加大建筑业投资能有效促进建筑业及运输邮电业等关联产业的持续增长。

On the basal idea of input-output mode,the interior mechanism and dynamical model between construction industry and TPT（transport,post,and telecommunication） industry was proposed with system dynamics.The history data of construction,TPT and macro-economy in 1992-2005 were collected and analyzed to simulate and predict the current situation and tendency of construction and TPT with the dynamical model.Based on them,influence of construction investment on construction and TPT was investigated on one hand;on the other hand,inhibition effect of financial crisis and boosting effect of investment increase on construction and TPT were simulated and predicted when the parameters of the financial crisis and investment increase were set up.Research results indicated that the interior mechanism between construction and TPT was significant;and increasing investment was an effective way to promote economic growth of construction,TPT,and other related industries.