上海PRED的系统分析及调控指标研究

Systematic Analysis on Population, Resources, Environment and Development in Shanghai and Its Adjusting Indexes Study

在对上海PRED研究中,建立了PRED系统因子模型,以1978～1995年的数据为基础,计算了上海PRED系统7个因子间的相关系数并列出相关矩阵,据此分析了该时期内多因子的演变及其相关性,得出了系统的各因子演变显著的不同步性和单因子演变无规律的跳跃性特征。认为环境与经济是上海PRED系统有效调控的关键;经济发展总量的改善和积极管理可以缓解人口等因子的制约作用。

On studying population(P), resources(R), environment(E) and development(D) in Shanghai, establishment of PRED system factors model has been conducted. Based on the data of 1978-1995, to calculate the interrelated coefficient of seven factors of Shanghai PRED system, and put forward the related matrix, then analysed the evolution and interrelation of multi-factor in that period, and obtained the evolution of each factor in the system with remarkable non-synchronism and leaping characteristics of irregular single factor evolution. It perceived that environment and economy are the effective keys of adjusting Shanghai PRED system, and ameliorating total amount of economic development and active management may mitigate the factors of population etc.