中国人为源VOC排放清单不确定性研究

Uncertainty Analysis of Emission Inventory for Volatile Organic Compounds from Anthropogenic Sources in China

针对采用"排放因子法"构建的中国人为源VOC排放清单,开展了不确定性研究工作.基于排放清单输入信息的准确性和可靠性,构建了活动水平和排放因子的不确定度评估系统,获得了清单输入信息概率密度分布函数.利用Monte Carlo模型将输入信息的不确定度传递到清单的输出值,计算了2005年我国人为源VOC排放概率密度分布函数.结果表明,2005年我国人为源VOC排放量概率密度呈对数正态分布,相对标准差为±52%,95%置信区间的不确定度为[-51%,+133%].若利用传统的误差分析法,在相同输入信息基础上,计算同一清单的不确定性时,其结果比上述Monte Carlo数值模拟法的结果偏低约40%.此外,通过敏感度分析找出了对清单不确定性影响最大的20个输入信息,为今后进一步改善我国人为源VOC排放清单提供了指导和依据.

This study analyzed the uncertainties in the Chinese anthropogenic volatile organic compound（VOC） emission inventory.The uncertainty evaluation system for input information including activity data and emission factors was established to provide the probability density function of each input datum.Monte Carlo method was applied to propagate the uncertainties of emissions’input data and calculate the probability density function of total VOC emissions.The results indicated that the Chinese national anthropogenic VOC emissions in year 2005 had a log-normal distribution,with a relative standard deviation of 52%,and with 95% confidence interval of [-51%,＋ 133% ].However,if the traditional method for error analysis was used based on the same input information,the uncertainty of the 2005 VOC emission inventory calculated was 40% lower than the former results.In addition,sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the 20 most sensitive inputs influencing the uncertainty of emissions,which will be helpful to improve the accuracy of VOC emission inventory in the future.