基于“药粮价比”的野生中药资源动态监测与预警方法的商建

Novel method for dynamic monitoring and early-warning on wild resources of traditional Chinese medicines based on price ratio between drug and foodstuff

目的:探讨建立野生中药资源动态监测与预警的新思路和新方法。方法:借鉴国家猪肉供需监测指标"猪粮比"的研究思路,通过构建药材价格和粮食价格比值的指标,反映药材资源供需平衡及变化规律,进而评估野生中药材资源的变化情况。结果:选择粮食(粳米)这一国家重点调控的基础商品作为一个相对稳定的参照系,扣除非药材市场因素如CPI、通货膨胀率等对药材价格的影响。以冬虫夏草、甘草等野生药材为研究对象,比较分析2002 2008年药材月份绝对价格、月药/粮价比、月药/粮价变化环比、年药/粮价变化环比、药粮价变化比差值5种指标及其变化趋势,发现"药粮价变化比差值"指标可以较好地扣除粮价波动对指标的影响,从而得到修正的药材价格相对变化趋势,并发现以相对长期的时间段如年份为计算单位的预测可靠性相对较好。如藁本的"药粮价变化比差值"指标近年来持续上升,提示资源供需出现不平衡,资源供给量不能满足市场需求,应给予必要的政策干预,维护资源的可持续良性发展。结论:通过"药粮价变化比差值"指标动态监测和评估中药资源供需变化情况,具有一定的可行性,可作为中药资源动态监测体系的有益探索和补充。

Objective： To probe into the new idea along with establishment of a novel method for dynamic monitoring and ear- ly-warning on the wild resources of traditional Chinese medicines （TCMs）. Method： The alterations of wild traditional Chinese medici- hal resources were assessed through the price ratio between drug and foodstuff （PRDF） indicating the balance between supply and de- mand of the specific TCMs, referred to the price ration between pork to foodstuff which is used in national monitoring to the balance be- tween pork supply and demand. Result： Since the price of rice was tightly controlled by government, it was selected as a relatively sta- ble reference to build the PRDF in order to take away the non-marketing influence to TCMs price such as CPI and inflation rate. The modified relative alteration trend of TCMs price had been researched through comparing different formulae to build PRDF, including ab- solute average month price of TCMs, month ave.rage price ratio of TCMs to foodstuff （rice） , month-on-month change of TCMs to rice, year-on-year change of TCMs to rice, and difference in value of period-on-period change （DVPPC）. In the research, Cordyceps, Gly- cyrrhiza and totally five herbs were selected as model drugs and the price data were collected from 2002 to 2008. The results showed that DVPPC calculated of relative long time window was more sensitive and stable to reflect the relative alteration trend of TCMs price. For instance, the DVPPC of Ligustici showed continuously increase trend in recent years. This suggested appearance of unbalance be- tween supply and demand of Ligustici, and forced policy intervention to maintain reasonable and continuable utilization of Ligu^tici re- source. Conclusion： The proposed method and the formula of DVPPC revealed some useful guidance for dynamic monitoring the wild resources of TCMs.