中国商业银行保持适度规模发展的研究——基于银行业饱和度与系统性风险的分析

An Appropriate Development Scale for Commercial Banks of China——Analysis Based on the Saturation and Systemic Risk of Bank Industry

近年来,中国商业银行规模急聚扩大,在促进经济快速发展的同时也积聚了相当的风险。对中国商业银行饱和度、系统性风险及风险控制能力的客观评估都涉及到中国金融发展的战略问题。作者认为,当前中国商业银行规模存在局部过度饱和以及较大系统性风险,保持中国商业银行规模适度、协调发展,不断优化中国的商业银行结构,推进利率市场化进程等是保持中国金融健康发展的有效保证。

Finance and economic development promote each other,and a certain scale of financial institutions is a prerequisite for finance to works.In recent years,the scale commercial banks of China have been expanded sweepingly,which not only promoted the economic development but also accumulated lots of risks.An objective analysis on such aspects as the saturation of commercial banks,the systemic risks,and the assessment on risks-controlling ability is therefore closely related to the strategic issues of financial development of China.The author believes that there exist the problems of partial over-saturated scale and systemic risks in commercial banks of China,so an appropriate development scale,a harmonic development and an increasingly optimized structure of commercial banks are effective guarantees for the healthy development of Chinese finance.