服务贸易对澳门经济增长的贡献研究——基于澳门1998～2010年季度数据实证分析

Study on the Contribution of Service Trade to Macao's Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis Based on its Quarterly Data of 1998～2010

文章在出口扩展型总量生产函数模型的基础上,从供给的视角实证分析了劳动、资本特别是服务贸易对澳门经济增长的影响和贡献。从1998年2季度至2010年2季度的季度平均值来看,资本和劳动投入对澳门经济增长的贡献份额分别为12%和9%,贡献率较低,而服务贸易总额对经济增长的贡献份额为75%,贡献率较高。面对全球金融危机,澳门必须调整一业独大的产业结构和过度依赖服务贸易的增长模式,实现产业结构适度多元化,不断催生新的经济增长点。

From the perspective of supply, the paper researches on the contribution of labor, capital, especially service trade, to Macao＇s economic growth based on the model of export augmented aggregate production function. Based on the quarterly data of 1998-2010, the paper finds that the average contribution shares of capital and labor input to Macao＇s economic growth are respectively 12% and 9%, and the average contribution share of total trade in services is 75%. So service trade has made greater contributions to Macao＇s economic growth. Facing the challenge of the global financial crisis, Macao is suggested to adjust its industrial structure of one industry dominance and its growth model of over-relying on service trade, so as to achieve an appropriately-diversified industrial structure and create a new economic growth pole.