随机服务系统在装备需求预测与决策建模中的应用

Application of Randomized Service System in Modeling of Equipment Demand Forecasting and Decision-Making

为解决复杂约束条件下装备维修保障决策难题,运用随机服务系统原理进行装备需求预测与决策建模。结合装备维修保障需求预测与决策问题实际,系统分析随机服务系统模型的基本组成、分布规律、表示方法及主要模型和衡量指标,提出基于保障效率约束条件的装备维修保障需求预测与决策方法,结合装备维修保障实际建立了装备维修保障的损失函数概念,并运用实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。该研究结论对创新装备维修保障需求预测与决策方法,推进装备维修保障精确化发展具有一定的现实意义。

To solve the difficulty of decision making on equipment maintenance and insurance under restricted conditions,based on the principal of randomized service system,setting up the equipment demand forecasting and decision-making modeling.By combining the demand forecasting on equipment maintenance and insurance with the decision making process,conducting a systematic analysis on the basic components,distribution law,denotative method,primary model and evaluating index of the randomized service system,the method of equipment maintenance and insurance forecasting and decision making based on the maintenance efficiency is set forth,the concept of loss function of equipment maintain insurance is established by the examples of equipment maintaining insurance,the feasibility and validity is validated by using examples.The conclusion shows great realistic significance on innovating methods of equipment demand forecasting and decision-making and advancing the building of the precision of equipment maintaining insurance.