基于SES的不常用备件需求预测模型

Forecasting Model for Spare Parts with Intermittent Demand Based on SES

在目前引进装备的需求预测中,针对历史数据较少和样本值具有大量零值的问题,采用一次指数平滑法(Single Exponential Smoothing,SES)进行不常用备件需求预测。分析指数平滑法初始值和加权系数对模型预测准确性的影响,建立舰艇间断性需求备件的预测模型,并对某型舰艇备件进行预测和分析,较好地实现了间断性需求备件的预测。仿真结果证明了该方法的可行性和有效性。

Considering it is hard to forecast the intermittent demand of spare parts because of the short time of equipment introduction,as well as less history data and intermittent demand with a great deal of zero value,introduced a new method named Single Exponential Smoothing（SES） to achieve it.Basing on studying in how the initial value and weighting factor of SES method affect the accuracy of model forecasting,besides establishing and analyzing the intermittent demand forecasting model of some kind of ships.The simulation result shows that SES method could do well in forecasting intermittent demand for spare parts.