灾害气候下交通枢纽滞留旅客转移模型仿真

Model Simulation of Stranded Passengers Transfer Among Transport Hubs in Disastrous Climate

在概要介绍应急管理和多主体仿真建模与分析工具应用情况的基础上,针对灾害气候中各重要交通枢纽(汽车站、火车站、机场)有大面积人群滞留的情况,采用贝叶斯网络和影响图作为建模工具,研究和设计了滞留旅客转移决策过程模型,并采取面向对象的设计方法,使用Java语言在R epast平台下建立该问题的多主体仿真模型。通过仿真数据分析滞留旅客在各个交通枢纽的转移模式,并提出优化方案,进而为政府应急管理决策提出政策建议。

According to the cases of large crowd stranded at transport hubs（such as,bus station,railway station and airport） in disastrous climate,a model is designed to describe passenger delay and tranfer among transport hubs.We believe that weather,traffic node status（open or closed）,service status（normal,delayed or canceled）,estimated wait time and estimated transfer cost are the main factors in decision-making of passengers transfer.Bayesian network and influence diagram are used to describe passenger transfer decision-making process,and a multi-agent simulation model is established on Repast platform.Based on the simulation data,stranded passenger transfer modes in different transport hubs are analyzed,and an optimization solution is established.Thus,policy recommendations for the government emergency management are proposed.