社会产品价格对水价的敏感性——基于虚拟水贸易框架的分析

Research on Sensitivity of Social Product Price to Water Price Under the Framework of Virtual Water Trade

虚拟水贸易是缺水地区从社会经济系统层面解决水资源短缺问题的一种策略选择,但由于长期的低水价,致使很多国家和地区的现实经济模式与虚拟水贸易战略的预期相悖。文章基于水资源投入产出分析方法,构建虚拟水贸易理论框架下的水价敏感性模型,分析水价上涨对各产业产品价格带来的影响。模型结果显示,区域水价提升对各产业产品价格的影响不仅在于该产业直接用水成本的上升,同时也不得不承受其他产业成本上升带来的间接影响,并且这两种影响作用是累加的。宁夏数据的实证得出,水价上涨对农业产品价格的影响最为强烈,批发和零售贸易餐饮业次之,对服务业产品价格的影响最弱。因此,可通过制定合理的水价调整策略,激励水资源极度缺乏的地区实施虚拟水贸易战略,避免过分强调传统的重农发展模式,促进产业结构向先进制造业和服务业转变,实现有限水资源更为合理的利用模式,达到经济发展与水生态的和谐局面。

Virtual water trade is a strategic choice for water-deficient areas to deal with water problems from social and economic system.Due to the long-term low water price,however,the real economy mode contradicts the anticipation of virtual water trade strategy in many countries and areas.Based on water input-output analysis method,this paper establishes the water price sensitivity model under the framework of virtual water trade theory,and analyzes the impact of increasing water price on various production prices.Results of the model indicate that increasing regional water price imposes double impacts on various production prices： one is the rising direct water cost of the industries themselves,the other is the mutual indirect impact resulting from the rising cost of the various industries,and the two impacts are accumulated.The empirical analysis of data in Ningxia Procince shows that increasing water price has the largest impact on the farm products,the less impact on the wholesale retail trade and the catering services,and the weakest impact on the service industry.Therefore,reasonable adjustment strategy of water price should be formulated to inspire the implementation of virtual water trade strategy in the most severely water-deficient areas,to curb the traditional development pattern of over-emphasizing on farming,to promote the transformation of industrial structure to the advanced manufacturing and service industries,to realizle more reasonable utilization mode of limited water resource,and to achieve the balance between economic development and water ecology.