基于LMDI方法的中国国际贸易隐含碳分解

Using LMDI Method in Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions Embodied in China's International Trade

对国际贸易产生环境影响的定量研究正日益受到关注,特别是对隐含碳的研究。以中国2005年为例,对中国国际贸易隐含碳进行估算,应用对数平均D氏指数法(LMDI)对影响隐含碳净转移的因素进行分解分析。结果显示中国因生产排放碳量远大于其消费需要排放的碳量,从国外净转移到中国的隐含碳为395.66MtC;净转移隐含碳影响因素中强度效应(进出口商品完全碳排放系数差异)贡献率为60%,规模效应(进出额差异)贡献率为55%,结构效应(进出口结构差异)贡献率为-14%,此结果表明中国相比国外的高碳排放强度是造成目前碳转移额外增加的主要因素,分析结构效应发现中国主要净出口行业大部分不是高碳排放强度行业,而净进口行业却主要由高碳排放强度行业构成,特别是与碳排放密切相关的能源行业居净进口行业首位。

Recently much attention has been given to quantifying the environmental impacts of international trade and there is an increasing concern over the impacts of carbon dioxide transfer embodied within international trade.In this paper,the balance of carbon emissions embodied in China＇s international trade for the year 2005 was calculated,and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI） was used in decomposition analysis of effect factors.The results show that production-based carbon emissions are much larger than consumption-based carbon emissions in China,and net transfer to China in terms of carbon emissions embodied within trade is 395.66 MtC.The contribution rate of intensity effect（the difference between total carbon emissions intensity of exports and that of imports） is 60%,the contribution rate of activity effect（trade surplus） is 55%,and the contribution rate of structure effect（the difference between structure of exports and that of imports） is-14%.According to results,high carbon emissions intensity and trade surplus of China are the major factors that affect carbon transfer to China,and intensity effect is more important than activity effect.It＇s worth noticing that structure effect is negative.Because most of China net exports belong to low carbon emissions intensity industries,however most of China net imports belong to high carbon emissions intensity industries,especially energy industries that have a close relationship with carbon emissions.