基于模糊聚类的中国分省碳排放初步研究

Preliminary Fuzzy Clustering Analysis on Carbon Emission in Different Provinces of China

探索低碳发展的道路,既要注意到发展模式的普适性,也要考虑模式的适应性。在中国,从1980年开始CO2的排放总量就不断上涨。但是由于地区之间经济发展水平、生活水平以及环境状况之间存在很大差异,沿海与内陆、东中西部碳排放的驱动因素差异较大,因此在实施低碳发展时,必须考虑影响区域碳排放驱动因素的差异,从而有针对性地制定减排策略。本文从环境经济学角度出发,基于碳排放的驱动因素,利用Kaya模型研究分析例如影响中国碳排放的主要因素——人口、人均国民生产总值和单位国民生产总值碳排放量,并将此三项指标作为模糊聚类指标,将中国按碳排放驱动因素分为4大区域,并针对各区域提出实现低碳发展的相关政策建议。最后,本文对应用该方法将中国按照碳排放驱动因素进行区划的优点与不足做了进一步的讨论。

As exploring a path of low-carbon development,it is necessary to consider both the universality and adaptability of development models.In China,the total amount of CO2 emission has been increased since 1980.However,the economic development level,as well as living and environment condition were different among provinces,which caused that the effective driving force of carbon emission is different between coastland and inland or between eastern,middle and western regions in China.Therefore,in order to make corresponding carbon-cutting policies,we should note that the effective driving force of carbon emission is different among provinces when implementing strategies of low carbon development.This paper analyzed the driving factors of carbon emission and identified the main factors which affected carbon emission in China are Population,GDP per capita and Carbon emission per unit of GDP,which were used as index for fuzzy clustering.Then China was divided into four regions based on driving factors of carbon emission using fuzzy clustering analysis.Finally,this paper put forward relevant suggestion on low-carbon development model for each region.