基于Logit模型的非自愿性移民迁徙分析

Analysis of Involuntary Resettlement and Migration Based on Logit Model

我国每年由于建设拆迁、水库工程等引发的移民迁徙数量比较大,移民搬迁涉及政治、经济、社会、民族、宗教、文化等诸多方面,是一项复杂的系统工程。为了更好地为中央对三峡库区移民可持续发展规划提供政策建议,笔者在三峡库区内选择有代表性的W县进行实地调研,调查涉及3个镇、19个村、46个组、9 061户,在对调查数据进行Logit分析后得到如下结论:在不考虑搬迁补偿金额和帮扶政策等外部选择条件的前提下,如果只考虑移民自身的特征与其拥有的环境资源禀赋数据会发现:农户自身家庭收入、土地面积以及居住环境、居住位置、居住方式等因素会对农户的搬迁意愿产生显著的影响。因此我们建议在库区搬迁规划时在一定条件下应根据农户的实际条件进行有选择性的搬迁,而不是一刀切式的政策,这样可以避免在实施搬迁过程中的造成的社会冲突与矛盾。

The total amount of resettled migrants in China is increasing into a large one due to reconstruction and reservoir engineering projects.Resettlement of migrants is a complex and systematic project given that it involves political,economic,social,ethnic,religious as well as cultural aspects.For the purpose of contributing countermeasures to the central government＇s Sustainable Three Gorges Resettlement Development Project,we carried out a survey by taking a ＂W＂ County in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as a sample which covered 3 towns,19 villages,46 groups,and 9 061 households.The following conclusions were drawn through a Logit regression analysis support by the data from the survey： farmer household＇s income,land size,living environment,living location and style had significant impact on farmer＇s resettlement intention when the resettlement compensation and national supporting policy were ignored.Based on the finding we recommended that when to plan relocation of reservoir area,a stiff policy treating all the farmer households similarly should be avoided and segmented household＇s specific conditions should be taken into account so as to reduce the possible social contradictions and conflicts to the limit.