广东省农业技术偏向与劳动力调整的定向分析

Direction Between the Agricultural Technology Tendency and the Labor Adjustment in Guangdong Province

经济发展离不开技术层面上革新的支持。正如农业技术进步是农业经济可持续增长的内在客观规律一样,它的演进必将对农业部门的劳动力调整产生显著影响。本文借助于对"拉尼斯—费景汉模型"的扩展,分析了农业部门的技术进步偏向与劳动力调整这一关键性问题。并且从两者的关系入手,设计衡量农业技术偏向的一系列关键性指标,运用经济计量方法对广东省农业进行实证测算。研究表明,广东作为主要的农业技术改良大省,其劳动力的调整与技术进步中劳动节约型指标呈正相关,与土地节约型指标呈负相关。在格兰杰因果关系检验中,在劳动使用型技术偏向和资本使用型技术偏向始终互为格兰杰原因。农业技术进步不但直接与劳动型技术和资本型技术都有关系,而且劳动使用型技术偏向是劳动力的格兰杰原因。最后,本文就如何解决农业技术进步与农业就业两者之间的困局提出相应的政策措施。

Economic development is inseparable from the technical level to support innovation.As it is an inner objective law for the sustainable growth of agricultural economy,the agricultural technological advance will significantly affect the labor adjustment in the agricultural sector.We expand the Ranis-Fei model to analyze the critical issue between the agricultural technology tendency and the labor adjustment in the agricultural sector.And from the view of the relation,the research designs a few key indicators of the agricultural technology tendency and tests agriculture in Guangdong Province by the econometric methods.The result shows that as Guangdong Province is one of the major provinces to improve agricultural technology,the labor adjustment of Guangdong is positively correlated with indicators of the labor-saving and negatively with the land-saving in the technological progress.In the Granger causality test,labor-using technology tendency and capital-using technology tendency are always Granger cause with each other.Technological advance in agriculture has a direct impact to labor-based and capital-based technologies,and labor-using technology tendency is labor＇s Granger cause.Finally,it is proposed measures on how to solve the dilemma between the technological advance and agricultural employment in agriculture.