保险发展对经济稳定作用的实证研究——基于46个国家的面板数据分析

An Empirical Research of Insurance Development to Economy Stability——The Analysis Based on Panel Data Model of 46 Countries

保险能促进经济发展的论点已经被许多学者验证过了,但是保险稳定经济发展的作用还未得到进一步验证。利用个体时点双向随机效应模型,利用46个国家的面板数据,分析了保险深度、寿险深度、财险深度对国内生产总值、财政收入、税收收入发展稳定性的影响。分析结果显示,在一个发达的保险市场中,包括发达的寿险市场和发达的财险市场,经济的发展表现出更加稳定的特性,国内生产总值、财政收入、税收收入都能够稳步增加。相对而言,在不发达的保险市场中,经济的发展会表现出更大的波动性。而且,相对于人寿保险的影响而言,财产保险对稳定国内生产总值、财政收入、税收收入发展的影响更加明显。

Insurance development is very important to economics,which has been testified by so many academic articles,while we haven＇t tested whether it＇s useful to the stability of economic development.Through cross-section and period random model of panel data from 46 countries,the relationship between insurance penetration and economics stability has been analyzed,as well as the relationships between insurance penetration and public finance stability or tax income stability.It＇s found that in the country where the insurance has developed well,economy develops more stably,and it＇s the same to public and tax income.Life insurance and nonlife insurance do have the same effect on those indexes.But the influence of nonlife insurance is stronger than that of life insurance.So nonlife insurance market should be developed more so as to ensure a stable economy.