上海能源消费碳排放分解研究

A Study on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Energy Consumption of Shanghai by Decomposition Analysis

能源利用不仅为经济活动提供动力还大量排放二氧化碳。为分解上海市能源消费CO_2排放的影响因素,明晰上海市能源消费CO2排放变化特征,采用指数分解分析方法建立了上海市能源消费碳排放的LMDI分解模型,从经济规模、产业结构、能源强度和产业碳排放系数4个影响因素着手,实证研究了1995-2005年上海分三次产业的能源消费碳排放变化机理。结果表明：经济快速增长是上海碳排放增加的主导因素,能源强度下降是抑制碳排放增长的重要因素。产业结构、能源结构优化有利于控制碳排放,而重工业化、能源结构高碳化会增加碳排放。基于实证分析结果和上海市情,提出了上海市未来控制碳排放的相关政策建议。

Not only does energy use provide power for the economic activities, but also emits lots of carbon dioxide. A logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） model has been built up to study the carbon emission mechanism of energy sector in Shanghai for the period of 1995 through 2005. Decomposed into economic scale, industrial structure, energy intensity and industry carbon emission factors, the study showed that rapid economic growth dominated the carbon accumulation and declined energy intensity reduced the carbon emissions significantly. Optimizing industrial structures and energy mix would better control the carbon emissions, whilst heavy industrialization and using more fossil energy would increase the carbon emissions. Based on the empirical analysis and actual conditions, some suggestions on carbon emission control in Shanghai in the future were given.