基于多米诺效应的化工园区定量风险评估方法研究

Research on quantitative risk assessment in chemical park based on domino effect model

探讨了多米诺效应的定义,特点及其发生机理,对基于多米诺效应的定量风险评估方法进行了研究.针对不同初始事件的物理效应因素给出了目标设备损害几率的计算方法,运用人体损伤模型对事故后果进行定量分析,量化了风险,给出个人风险图和F—N社会风险曲线.实例计算表明:多米诺效应明显扩大了事故风险.通过多米诺效应分析有利于园区的安全规划和管理.

In order to quantitatively assess the risk of chemical park,a domino-based model was introduced for modeling the domino-caused risks.The definition,characteristics and mechanism of domino effect were introduced in this model.The probability of damages and human vulnerabilities caused by different primary hazardous events was also proposed and then used for the quantitative assessment of both individual and societal risks created by the chemical park.The individual and societal risks（F—N curve）,together with associated quantitative methods were also involved.It was found that,by applying the method in real case,the risk caused by domino effect can be dramatically increased.This finding would be beneficial to the safety planning and risk management of chemical parks.