利率政策对房价影响的实证研究:1998—2009

Empirical Study on the Effect of Interest-Rate Policy on Housing Price:1998-2009

从实证的角度分析货币政策对房价的影响。选择6个利率指标建立利率指标体系,利用主成分分析法计算利率指数。建立利率指数与房屋销售价格指数的A lmon滞后模型,模型的拟合优度为66%,说明利率可以解释房价波动的66%。模型表明利率与房价负相关,并且利率对房价的影响存在8个滞后期。对1998年1季度至2009年4季度房屋销售价格指数、利率指数、房地产开发投资和商品房销售额4个指标变化情况的分析表明,单一的、缺乏配套政策支持的利率政策对房价无法完全实现预期调控目标,要使其在房价调控中发挥应有作用,应该保持利率调控作用机制畅通,并使利率政策与其他货币政策、财政政策、土地政策等政策互相配合。

Monetary policy can have important effect on the real estate market.In an empirical view,this paper establishes an interest-rate index system that is comprised of six interest-rate single indexes.The principal-component analysis approach is used to analyze the interest-rate index system and a composite interest-rate index is obtained.It is known that both the composite interest-rate and the housing-sale-price index are smooth and there is a long-steady relation in this period.Both of the two index data are from 1998 to 2010.As a result,an Almon model could be established to study the effect of the interest-rate policy on the housing price.The empirical study indicates that,on the one hand,the Almon model＇s R2 is 66%,which means that the interest-rate could explain about 66% of the housing price＇s fluctuation;on the other hand,there is a negative correlation relation between the composite interest-rate and the housing-sale-price index and the effect that the interest-rate on the housing price is lagged in 8 quarters.In order to analyze the result,this paper evaluates the housing-sale-price index,the composite interest-rate index,the real-estate investment and the commercial-house sale,from 1998 to 2010.It is found that the interest-rate policy couldn＇t regulate the housing price completely as is expected without the support of other policies.Thus,the government should make the interest-rate＇s effectual mechanism be fluent and use other policies such as financial policy,land policy and so on to co-operate with the interest-rate policy.