中国投资、储蓄与消费之间关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship among Investment,Deposit and Consumption in China

中国经济要保持持续的高速发展,必须平衡好投资、储蓄与消费之间的关系。本文通过Solow黄金储蓄率的测算,发现1995年后中国的储蓄率居高不下。通过Chow Test对消费和GDP之间关系的检验,可以把1981～2008年中国经济分为两个阶段。通过对比发现1995年后,不论是消费倾向,或者是消费的GDP弹性都有较大降幅,而且消费开始不能拉动GDP增长。此外,本文分析了居民储蓄、企业储蓄和政府投资对于经济增长的作用变化,发现住房储蓄促进经济的作用有限,而通过减税提高企业储蓄能够提升经济发展潜力。

Aimed at maintaining the high speed devel opment of China economy, it was important to balance the relationship among the investment, deposit and consumption. By measuring the Solow Gold Savings Ratio, this article showed that the real savings ratio in China was too high after 1995. And China economy could be divided into two stages due to the breakpoint year which was identified by the Chow Test using China＇s GDP and consumption data from 1981 to 2008. The second stage, 1995-2008, had lower marginal propensity to consume and GDP elasticity of consumption. Also the result revealed that consumption wasn＇t able to stimulate economic growth. In addition, this paper had analyzed the impacts of the residents＇ savings, the en- terprise deposit and the government investment to China economic development in two stages. The paper revealed that the residents＇ housing deposit had little effect, but the en- terprise deposit would be helpful to promote the economic growth by tax cut.