基于多项Logit选择模型的在线渠道价格促销效应实证研究

Empirical Study on Online Channel Price Promotion Effect Based on Multinomial Logit Model

在线渠道下,不同品牌的价格折扣促销的差异性会引起在线消费者品牌选择行为变化。同时,在线的价格比较机制也增加了消费者价格敏感度,如果不分离出这一重要的促销效应,那么会产生估计偏差,影响模型的预测能力。本文首先回顾品牌选择的离散模型中价格促销的研究脉络;然后构建在线渠道消费者品牌选择离散Logit模型;接着在对中国某电子商务公司的消费者实际购买可乐的面板数据分析的基础上,研究价格折扣对于该公司消费者品牌选择行为的影响效应,研究发现:(1)如果不引入价格折扣促销因素,将会过高估计价格的影响;(2)价格折扣促销对于消费者网上品牌选择有显著的影响,且影响为正效应。文章最后剖析价格折扣对在线渠道的消费者品牌选择的行为影响机理,并提出未来的研究方向。

The difference of various brands of promo tional price discounts, in online channels, results in online consumers＇ changes in brand choice behavior. Online price comparison mechanism aids the consumer price sensitivity, meanwhile the lack of this important promotional effect leads to estimation bias as well as impact on model forecasting a bility. First of all, this paper recalls the context of pricing promotion by the discrete model of brand choice, establishes Multinomial Logit discrete choice model for online consumers, studies the impact of price discounts for online consumers＇ brand choice, whose results are presented using the panel data analysis of actual Cola purchasing by consumers in one e-commerce company in China. Our results reveal the following. （1） Overestimation on the effect of price will be caused without considering promotional factors of price discounts. （2） Price discount has significant effect on brand choice of online consumers. A behavior-impacting mechanism is listed on the online consumer brand choice of by price discounts, with future research direction.