节能减排调控模型的系统仿真与目标优化——以略阳县灾后恢复重建规划为例

SYSTEMATIC SIMULATION AND OBJECTIVE PROGRAMMING OF ENERGY-SAVING & EMISSION REDUCTION REGULATORY MODEL——A CASE STUDY FROM LUEYANG POST-DISASTER RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION PLANNING

基于略阳县灾后恢复重建与振兴全县经济的需要和国家、陕西省有关节能减排战略部署的实情,对略阳经济发展现状和环境质量进行分析后,认为采取一定的调控措施,可实现协调灾后恢复重建地区经济与完成地区节能减排的目标。研究首先构建适合略阳县的节能减排系统动力学调控模型,通过选取产业结构调节系数和环保投资比重的不同组合,设定4种情景方案进行仿真,并对仿真结果进行目标优化,比选出较为适合的节能减排调控策略。研究认为,描述变量之间关系的方程和关键参数的确定对于系统动力学建模的质量至关重要,设定不同情景对模型进行仿真和目标优化可为定量决策和科学调控提供技术支撑。研究结果表明:在近期(2010～2012年),采取激励主导工业发展与较高环保投入相结合的策略更有利于灾后略阳经济尽快恢复和发展,同时兼顾节能减排任务的完成;在中期(2013～2016年)和远期(2017～2020年),采取主导工业平稳发展与较高环保投入相结合的策略更有利于全县按照循环经济发展模式,实现可持续健康协调发展。同时,研究结果还给出了备选方案和规避方案作为决策参考。

Based on the demand of the post-disaster restoration reconstruction and economic revitalization of Lueyang and the present strategic arrangement of the energy-saving emission reduction from the state and Shanxi province,and with the analysis of the economic development status,as well as environmental quality of Lueyang,the goal of coordinating post-disaster reconstruction to complete the regional economic and energy-saving could be implemented by the corresponding adjustment measures.The energy-saving emission reduction regulatory model was built by the system dynamics method.After the different combinations between the industrial structure adjustment coefficient and the investment proportion of environmental protection,the four programs was tested,and then the results was optimized by objective programming.It was found that the equation describing the relationship between variables and key parameters was essential to the quality of the system dynamics model.The results of the research showed that in the short-term,from 2010 to 2012,promoting dominant industries,in addition to higher investment in environmental protection,help the fast recovery of Lueyang economy and the objective achievement of energy-saving emission reduction;in the mid-term,from 2013 to 2016,and the long-term,from 2017 to 2020,the appropriate adjustment of stable development of the leading industrial and higher investment in environmental protection help build healthy circular economy development model and implement regional sustainable,healthy and coordinated development.Meanwhile the options and avoidance programs were also provided to make scientific decisions.