莱姆病暴发流行预警指标体系研究

Development of an indicator-based early warning system for Lyme disease outbreaks

目的构建莱姆病暴发流行的预警指标体系。方法采用文献调研和专家会议法初步拟定莱姆病预警指标体系的初始框架和指标,应用Delphi专家咨询法确定预警指标和指标权重,权重法比较各指标间作用大小。结果构建了包括宿主及媒介、高危人群、气象因素、社会环境、既往发病水平和指示病例相关的6个一级指标和14个二级预警指标的莱姆病预警指标体系。结论初步构建了我国莱姆病预警指标体系,建议根据当地的实际情况,结合莱姆病的预警指标体系,制定预警方案。

Objective To develop an indicator-based early warning system for Lyme disease outbreaks. Methods The preliminary framework and indicators were formulated based on literature review and expert consensus. The early warning indicators and respective weights were determined using Delphi expert consultation, and the impacts of different indicators were measured by weighting coefficients. Results An indicator-based early warning system for Lyme disease was formed using six primary warning indicators, including the host and vector, high-risk population, meteorological factors, social environment, previous prevalence and index cases, as well as 14 secondary indicators. Conclusion The indicator-based early warning system for Lyme disease in China has been basically established. Local early-warning proposals should be based on the indicator system and tailored to the actual situations.