金融危机企业资产负债表模型对我国的适用性检验—基于动态面板数据模型的分析

Testing for the applicability of company's balance-sheet model for financial crisis to China:An analysis based on dynamic panel data model

本文根据我国522家制造业上市公司2001-2007年的财务数据,建立动态面板数据模型,分析了Krug-man(1999)提出的金融危机企业资产负债表模型对我国的适用性。研究结论认为,在企业存在货币错配的情况下,人民币汇率波动对企业的短期信贷能力有显著的影响,但对长期信贷能力的影响还不明显。而且,这种影响是动态的,人民币汇率波动的滞后1期值比当期值对企业信贷能力的影响更加明显。因而,金融危机企业资产负债表模型对我国具有适用性。

A dynamic panel data mode is established according to the financial data of 522 China＇s manufacturing listed companies from 2001 to 2007,the applicability of the company＇s balance-sheet model for financial crisis proposed by Krugman（1999） to China is analyzed.It turns out that under the condition of currency mismatch,the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has significant effect on the company＇s short-term credit ability but little effect on the long-run credit ability.Moreover,the effect is dynamic,and the effect caused by fluctuation of RMB exchange rate of the lag of one-year on company＇s credit ability is more obvious than the effect of the same year.Thus the company＇s balance-sheet model for financial crisis is applicable to China.