基于VAR模型的油价波动对我国经济影响分析

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on China's Economy Based on VAR Model

本文运用VAR模型,构建了原油价格与经济增长、物价水平、货币政策、失业率之间的动态关系系统,着重探讨油价波动对我国一些重要经济变量,特别是经济增长的影响规律。Granger因果关系分析表明,油价波动是引起经济增长率、物价水平、货币政策等经济指标变化的Granger原因。通过VAR(2)模型及脉冲响应分析,油价上升对我国经济的主要影响有:不会使国内生产总值减少,但会使经济增长速度变缓;通过对总需求的拉动及成本增加这样两条途径使物价水平上升;长期内会使失业率增加;增加了有效实施货币政策的难度。整体来看,尽管国际油价及我国的经济变量复杂多变,由国际油价、经济增长、物价水平、货币供应量、失业率这五个变量所构成的经济系统是稳定的,也就是说,通过市场经济的自动调节和政府的宏观经济调控,我国的经济能够平稳有序的发展。

Using VAR model,this paper constructs a dynamic relationship system among crude oil prices,economic growth,price level,monetary policy and unemployment rate,focusing on the impact lau of oil price fluctuation on some of China＇s key economic variables,especially economic growth.Granger causality analysis shows that oil price volatility is the Granger reason which changes economic growth,price level and monetary policy.According to the VAR（2） model and impulse response analysis,oil prices increasing has some impact on China＇s economy： not to reduce the gross domestic product,but to make economic growth slow;to raise the price level by stimulating aggregate demand and cost increases;increase unemployment rate in long-term period;and to increase the difficulty of implementing monetary policy effectively.Overall,even though international oil prices and economic variables are complex and changeable,the economic system consisting of the international oil prices,economic growth,price level,money supply and unemployment rate is stable.That is to say,China＇s economy can develop smoothly and orderly through the automatic adjustment of the market economy and the macro-economic control of the government.