订单不确定条件下的供应链协同决策研究

Supply Chain Coordinated Decision with the Uncertainty in the Soft Order

在产品客户化程度较高的装配生产中,制造商在获得客户的订单需求信息,但订单尚未签订的情况下,往往就要求供应商开始生产订单所需的零部件,以便客户订单签订后可以立刻开始产品的装配生产,从而实现尽快向客户交付订单的目的。但是,在客户订单不确定条件下,供应商提前生产零部件存在着一定的风险。一旦客户订单最终未能签订,由于零部件客户化程度一般也比较高,在相当长一段时间内很难被其它订单消化,从而形成呆滞库存。本文基于这样的运作环境,通过数学建模分析,研究了制造商何时向供应商下达零部件订单最优,以及供应商的最优生产决策问题,并给出了具体的决策方法。最后通过算例验证了模型的结论,并分析了生产延滞成本分担系数对供应商和制造商双方期望利润的影响。

In an assembly system whose product is highly customized,in order to deliver the final product as soon as possible,the assembly plant usually release the component order to the supplier when the detailed demand of the customer was clear but the customer order is still unconfirmed（soft order）.However,due to the uncertainty in soft orders,the supplier has to take the risk of production in advance.In case that the soft order is canceled ultimately,as the component is also highly customized,the component is difficult to be consumed by the other orders and turn to the inactive stock.Under this circumstance,we studies the optimal time to release the component order and the optimal decision of supplier.The decision-making procedure is given in this paper,and the expected profit of assembler and supplier is analyzed by considering the sharing ratio of production delay costs with a numerical example.