基于DPSIR模型的区域水安全评价研究

Study on regional water security assessment based on DPSIR model

为了对区域水安全状况进行有效评价,采用"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"模型,选取27项指标,构建区域水安全评价指标体系,通过层次分析法与熵值法确定评价指标在满足主客观条件下的组合权重,运用综合指数法模型,对2004—2008年广东省水安全状况进行了动态评价。结果表明,广东省水安全水平逐年提高,但总体水平不高,处于警戒状态,存在较大的不安全隐患。虽然响应指标在水安全方面起重要的作用,使系统存在的状态都处于上升的趋势,但系统驱动力、压力强度仍然较大,说明广东省水安全水平的提高很大程度上是依赖对环境的治理和投入。

This paper is aimed to introduce the application of the author＇s DPSIR model for regional water security assessment. Regional water security always includes various hazards resulting from the social and economic development, such as water shortage, pollution and flood etc. The scholars from home and abroad have carried out researches in different aspects, but the research of water quantification and assessment is still inadequate. Analyzing the components of regional water security on the basis of historical research findings and the related literature, this article has established a regional water security assessment system by using DPSIR model. This system includes five subsystems （ Driving Forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response ）, three levels and 27 indicators. All the indexes are divided into two categories and also each category has its own calculation method. On the basis of the regional water security assessment index systems, the weight of indicators is confirmed by the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy via calculating the comprehensive weight with the respect of considering the objective and subjective conditions. The composite index method is introduced to assess the comprehensive indicator system which is classified into five grades. The water security situations of Guangdong province at the time scale（2004 - 2008） are analyzed with the composite index water security assessment . The results show that the water security of Guangdong province has been improved gradually, from 0.459 6 to 0.510 0, but it has still kept in a lower level, not higher than 0.6. This region is still in the state of alarm according to the criterion of regional water security classification. Although the response plays an important role in the water security, and the state is in an upward trend, the driving forces and pressure are still intense. Therefore, for 5 years, the improvement of water security of Guangdong province is largely dependent on the environmental pollution treatment and investment. We would like to em- phasize is that the region should establish a more effective response mechanism to improve the water security. Above all, the model of DPSIR can be used to establish the index system of regional water security assessment. It is able to reflect the relationship of the indicators, and point out the limiting factors of water security improvement. The research which has been described in this paper may offer some references for further study.