影响我国广义货币需求因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing China's Broad Money Demand

运用现代货币数量理论,以我国1996-2009年货币数据为样本,建立长期广义货币需求函数进行实证分析,其结果表明:广义货币需求的长期收入弹性均大于1;长期货币需求的利率弹性都小于货币需求的收入弹性;预期通货膨胀率对广义货币需求影响显著,呈现负向变动关系,即随着通货膨胀预期上升,对货币需求减少。这一结论同时表明,我们可根据货币需求之间的弹性关系检验货币政策的有效性,以达到控制货币供给量,完善货币需求体系,维持物价指数的相对稳定的目的。

According to modern quantity theory of money, taking money data in 1996-2009 as a sample to build long-term demand function on broad money through empirical analysis, the research shows that the permanent income elasticity of broad money demand is greater than one; the interest elasticity is less than the income elasticity; the expected inflation rate irtiluences broad money demand sig- nificandy, showing negative change in relationship, namely, when expected infl fion rate rises, the demands on broad money declines. Meanwhile, the conclusion shows that we can test the efficiency of monetary policy aecerding to file elastic relationship between money demand to reach the aim of controlling money supply, improving money demand system, and balancing price index.