摘要
A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.
A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index （aa min） is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude （R m） of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl＇s precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m （24）=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.
基金
supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KGCX3-SYW-403-10)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10973020,10673017 and 40890161)
