油田电力系统综合资源规划中的组合预测方法研究

A Combinatorial Forecasting Approach of Electric Load in Integrated Resources Planning for Electric Power System

综合资源规划方法（IntegratedResourcesPlanning简称IRP）和需求方管理技术（DemandSideManagement，简称DSM），源于能源消耗量居世界首位的美国．综合资源规划方法的出现，标志着人类在提高能源使用价值的思维方式上步入了一个崭新的时代，预示着更高更经济地利用能源，更大地满足人们日益增长的物质、文明、环境的要求，已列入21世纪人类活动的一个重要领域．与传统的电力系统规划方法不同的是综合资源规划方法在考虑供应侧资源的同时也考虑需求侧的资源，即在需求侧方面采取一些节电措施，包括季节性的削峰填谷措施，因此仅仅预测每年的最大负荷是不够的，还应预测每年的负荷曲线，同时还必须考虑采取某些措施之后，对负荷需求的影响．显然后者比前者更困难．本文讨论了综合资源规划中负荷预测的组合方法，并部分应用于大庆油田电力系统的规划中．本研究对综合资源规划方法的应用方法研究和实际的应用具有相当重要的指导和参考价值．

Integrated Resources Planning (IRP) and Demand Side Management (DSM) rooted in Uni-ted States, the biggest country of electric power consumption. The appearance of the IRP indicatesthat humanity is entering into a new century of energy utilization. That is, under the requirements inmaterial, civilization, and environment from human beings, the energy should be used economically andreasonably. The IRP has been listed in the key fields of humankind's activity in twenty one century. Dif-ferent from the conventional planning method, IRP is the process by which supply- and demand-side op-tions are consistently planned, implemented, and evaluated to provide energy services at a cost thatappropriately balances the interests of all stakeholders. Consequently, some energy saving measures may beadopted, such as, removing peak and filling vale. Therefore, it is not enough that only one electric loadper year is predicted. It should be that an electric load curve per year is forecasted. Obviously, the latteris more difficult than the former.This paper discussed a combinatorial forecasting approach of electricload in IRP for electric power system. Partially, the approach has been applied in Daqing Oilfield success-fully.