变化环境下的元谋干热河谷区水热响应分析

A Hydrothermal Analysis of Environment of Yuanmou Dry-hot River Valley in Jinsha River,Upper Yangtze River,China

以变化环境影响下的脆弱区金沙江元谋干热河谷为研究对象,通过多种验证方法,研究气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温、降水量、日降水量大于0.1 mm的日数和最大日降水量等水热指标对变化环境的响应规律。结果表明:从年际来看,自1956年以来,年均气温、极端最高气温均呈降低趋势,而极端最低气温则微弱升高,降水量、日降水量大于0.1 mm的日数和最大日降水量均为升高趋势;从年内来看,平均气温四季均为降低趋势,春季最显著,秋季最不明显,降水量四季均表现为增加趋势,其中春季最显著,冬季最不显著;从未来趋势来看,平均气温维持降低趋势的概率比升高的大,年降水量维持增加趋势的概率较转向降低趋势的概率要大,干热河谷有可能转为干暖或干温河谷。

Taking the Yuanmou dry-hot river valley of Jinsha River as the subject,which is a vulnerable area and affected by the environment.By a variety of methods,the discipline that the hydrothermal exponent response to the changing environment are studied.The hydrothermal exponent includes the annual temperature,extreme maximum temperature,extreme minimum temperature,precipitation,daily precipitation more than 0.1 mm and daily maximum precipitation.The results show that： Firstly,since 1956,annual average temperature and extreme maximum temperature showed a decreasing trend,while the extreme minimum temperature showed a slightly increasing trend,precipitation,daily precipitation more than 0.1 mm and the daily maximum precipitation are increasing trends;Secondly,average temperature in spring,summer,autumn and winter decreased,which is most significant in spring,and autumn is the least significant,rainfall in the four seasons showed an increasing trend,and the most significant was in spring,but winter was the least significant.Thirdly,for the future trend,the probability of maintaining the decreasing trend of the average annual temperature is better than the trend of increase,for the annual rainfall,the probability of maintaining an upward trend is more than the trend of reducing,which means that the dry-hot valley may become a warm and cool valley.