工程项目风险性费用的预测与管理

On forecasting of the risk costs of engineering programs and its management

结合工程造价的风险管理理论与计算机模拟技术进行了风险性费用的预测,并提出了基于风险概率分析为基础,应用蒙特卡罗方法对风险性费用进行动态监管,最后以实例阐述了应用过程。

Combining with the risk management theories of the engineering costs and the computer simulation technique,the paper forecasts the risk costs,points out the adoption of Monte Carlo method,based on the risk probability analysis to have the dynamic supervision on the risk costs,and illustrates the application process by taking examples.