观市2011

Outlook of the market in 2011

全球经济机遇与挑战并存 2011年全球经济复苏呈现“双轨”态势。国际货币基金组织（IMP）预测2011年和2012年新兴经济体和发展中国家将保持在6．5％的增长水平，略低于2010年7％的增速，其中增速最快的仍是亚洲发展中国家的中国和印度。2011年和2012年发达国家经济将增长2．5％。但是影响经济复苏进程的主要风险仍然存在，例如部分经合组织国家的主权债务风险、高油价以及美国等发达经济体迟迟未推进金融体制改革等。

The essay elaborates and forecasts the global macro economics in 2011 first,and then the shipping market such as the container,the dry bulk cargo and the tanker market.Global recovery advances but remains uneven,with two main tracks.In advanced economies,activity has tempered less than expected,but growth remains subdued,unemployment is still high,and renewed stresses in the Euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks.In many emerging economies,activity remains buoyant,inflation pressures are emerging,and there are now some signs of overheating,driven in part by strong capital inflows.The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the Euro area,policies to redress fiscal imbalances as well as to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally.High commodity prices are also a downside risk to the overall global recovery.Oil,coal and grains are amongst the commodities that put a lid on economic growth and create inflationary pressure.The already high and still rising oil prices could limit growth,in particular in the emerging markets where reliance on oil and consumption is growing the most.