普通住宅房价与地价因果关系的检验及其政策含义

Relationship between Housing Price and Land Price of Common Commercial Housing:A Grange-causality Test and Its Policy Implications

本文在综述房价与地价关系研究成果的基础上,结合土地市场与住宅市场二者属性,构建一个认识房价与地价关系的基础。理论研究表明,在不完全竞争的市场中,地价是房价上涨的一个重要但非决定性因素,土地需求作为引致需求受房价影响较大。同时,本文利用1998年至2009年季度数据对房价和地价进行G ranger因果关系检测,计量结果表明:短期内房价与地价互为影响,房价对地价影响更为显著;长期内,房价是地价的G ranger因,而不是相反。计量结果可以揭示房地产市场信号短期与长期传递的机制。在此基础上,本文提出房地产市场治理的应对之策。

Based on the research fruits of the relationship between housing price and land price, this pa- per constructed a framework combined with the attribute of both land market and housing market. The theoretical study showed that land demand was largely affected by housing price in the imperfect competitive market. At the same time, this paper used the sample of season price indexes of housing sale and land trade from 1998 to 2009, and tested their Granger-causality. The econometric results showed that housing price is the dominant factor of land price in long run while they are explanatory variable of other in short run. Finally, its policy imolieations were discussed, and measures were drawn to ~overnance the real estate, market.