中国国防支出的就业效应分析

An Analysis of the Effect of China's Defense Expenditure on Employment

本文研究了1978-2007年间中国国防支出对就业水平的影响,结果表明:(1)中国国防支出与就业水平之间存在长期的均衡关系;(2)长期来看,国防支出与就业水平之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系;(3)不论在长期还是在短期,中国的国防支出对就业水平都没有促进作用,可能的原因是我国国防支出的增加主要用于引进先进的军事技术、装备以及提高军人福利待遇上,从而对就业的影响很小。因此,我国国防支出应适当向军事领域的人力资本投入和军事科研经费投入上倾斜,这样可以加速国外先进技术和装备的本土化进程,进而加快军用技术的民用化,减少国防支出的"挤出"效应,从而实现国防开支与就业的良性循环。

This article checks the relationship between China＇s defense expenditure and employment during 1978 -2006. Empirical studies show that： （1）There is the long-term equilibrium relation＇ship between China＇s defense expenditure and employment level; and （2） in the long run, there is bidirectional Granger Causality between them; but （3） whatever in long-term or short-term, China＇s defense expenditure does not promote employment level. The main reason is that the China＇s defense expenditure mostly has been used to introduce the advanced military technology and equipment. Therefore China＇s defense expenditure should properly increase the devotion to the military human capital and military scientific research. It can accelerate the localization course of foreign advanced military technology and equipment. It can quickly civilianize the military technology, then reduce the extrusion effect of defense expenditure and realize virtuous cycle of defense expenditure and employment.