中国婚姻结构与生育控制对生育水平的影响分析——基于简化的邦戈茨中间变量生育率模型

On the Effects of Marriage Structure and Fertility Control on Fertility Level from 1982 to 2008

利用易于获取资料的、简化的邦戈茨中间变量生育率模型分析不同时期生育控制和婚姻结构对生育水平的影响。结果表明，在生育水平下降的前期（1970—1990年），其主要影响因素是生育控制，而在生育水平下降的后期（1990～1999年），主要影响因素则是婚姻结构。在新世纪（2000—2008年）生育水平的小幅度上升中，婚姻结构和生育控制对生育水平的影响大致相当。婚姻结构和生育控制对生育水平的影响规律可从文化堕距理论中得到有力阐释。

The paper analyzes the effects of fertility control and marriage structure on fertility level at different times in terms of the simplified Bongaarts model of the intermediate fertility variables. The outcome shows that the fertility control is the main factor from 1970 to 1990, which belongs to the earlier stage of decreasing of fertility. However, it is marriage structure in 1990s, which belongs to the later stage of decreasing of fertility. In 2000s, the fertility level increases a little, and the effect of marriage structure is equal to control fertihty＇s. The theory of culture lag can explain the law of the effects of marriage structure and fertility control on fertility level.