中国老年人口的健康状况、福利需求与前景

Health Status,Welfare Demand and Prospects of Elderly Population in China

利用中国2005年1%人口抽样调查资料对老年人口身体健康状况进行分析,并利用联合国人口预测资料,对2050年以前的中国老年人口身体健康状况及其对养老机构床位数需求进行预测。结果表明,2005年中国老年人口中"不能正常工作或生活不能自理"者占15.02%,规模达2 169万人。不同性别、年龄与城乡的老年人口的身体健康状况之间存在明显的差异,人口老龄化与家庭养老功能急剧弱化使得未来中国需要入住养老机构的老年人数量急剧增加。

By using the 1% National Population Survey data of 2005, this paper analyzes health status of elderly population, and by using United Nations Population Prediction data, this paper predicts health status of elderly population and the number of nursing home beds before＇2050. Results indicate that people unable to work or take care of themselves in elderly population contribute to be 15.2% , amount to be 21.69 million. Health status of elderly population by different gender, age, or from rural or urban exist significant difference. Aging and the rapid weakening of family support lead to the rapid increasement of elderly people who want to stay in nursing home in China.