实时数据与货币政策分析和评价——基于产出缺口的一个说明

Real-time Data and Policy Analysis and Evaluation-A Description based on Output Gap

本文基于1994Q1-2008Q4的数据并分别利用三次趋势和HP滤波两种模型方法估计了我国的实时、准实时和最终产出缺口,分析表明,这一时期我国的产出缺口遭受了较大而且高度持续的修正,说明我国的实时产出缺口和基于事后修正数据估计的产出缺口有很大不同。由于产出缺口是货币政策决策的重要依据,而货币政策决策总发生在"实时",不能等待后来产出缺口等数据信息的修正,因此,区分实时数据和事后修正数据对政策分析和评价而言可能就十分重要。

In this paper we estimate China＇s real-time, quasi real-time and final output gap based on the data from 1994Q1 to 2008Q4 using two models that is the Cubic Trends and the HP Filter respectively. The analysis shows that China＇s output gap during this period subjected to a large and highly persistent revision, indicating that there is a significant difference between the real-time output gap and the output gap estimated based on the~ ex post revised data in China. Since the output gap is an important basis for monetary policy decisions which always happen in ＂real time＂ and can not wait for the later revisions of output gap or other data,to distinguish real-time data from ex post revised data may be extremely important for policy analysis and evaluation.