人民币境外存量考察:基于季度数据的协整分析和间接估计

On RMB Cash Circulation Scale Outside China's Mainland: Co-integration Analysis and Indirect Estimation Based on Quarterly Data

本文根据现金需求的影响因素,构建了两个略有差异的现金需求实证模型,运用1992-2000年的季度数据,拟合出我国境内现金需求函数的表达方程,通过对比分析,选择拟合效果较好的模型来预测2001-2008年我国境内人民币需求量,通过扣除本地需求法估算出该段时期内境外人民币的存量。结果显示,2001-2008年间,人民币境外存量从100-300亿元规模开始波动上升,2006年开始呈现大幅增加的态势,达到甚至突破1000亿元;另外,人民币境外存量有较为剧烈的季节波动,这为央行制定货币政策带来一定困难。

The paper sets up two different empirical models for money demand based on money demand theory and estimates domestic money demand function of China with quarterly data from 1992 to 2000. Then we chose the better one to estimate the RMB cash circulation scale outside China's Mainland from 2001 to 2008 under some necessary hypotheses. The results show that RMB cash circulation scale outside China's Mainland increased with fluctuation from 2001 to 2008, and there was a leap of the scale in 2006, when the scale outreached 100 billion Yuan. Addition- ally, there was a drastic quarterly fluctuation of RMB cash circulation scale outside China's Mainland, causing difficulties for the central bank in drawing up monetary policy.