森林火灾受害面积的灰色预测模型的研究(英文)

A STUDY OF GREY FORECASTING MODELS OF FOREST FIRE DISASTER AREA

运用灰色系统理论和方法 ,研究了森林火灾受害面积变化趋势的预测和分析方法。以江西省为例 ,建立了GM( 1 ,1 )预测模型 ,得出了灰色预测曲线和灰色预测区间 ,并对 2 0 1 0年前该省森林火灾情况进行了预测和分析 ,从而为森林保护的有关决策提供了依据。此外 ,通过预测精度分析 ,以及与回归方法的比较分析 ,表明本文方法已达到精度要求 ,且明显优于白色预测方法。

According to grey system theory and method, a forecasting and analysis method for the trend of forest fire disaster area(FFDA) was studied. Jiangxi Province being taken as example, the GM(1,1)forecasting models were built; the grey forecasting curve and grey forecasting interval were obtained; and the situation of forest fire disaster in the province till 2010 was forecasted and analysed, in order to provide sound bases for making decisions about forest protection. In addition, the analysis of forecasting accuracy and comparison with regression method showed that the method of this paper can meet the accuracy demand and is obviously better than white forecasting method.