我国货币政策目标偏好的非对称估计与检验

On the Non-symmetry Estimation and Test of Target Partiality of Currency Policy in China

本文通过Linex函数一般化央行的目标函数,扩展了传统的L-Q货币政策分析模型。数理分析表明,如果央行的政策目标关于通胀和产出缺口是对称偏好的,则线性泰勒规则可作为本文模型结论的特例;如果央行关于通胀和产出缺口存在非对称性偏好,则最优货币政策规则中,短期名义利率将不仅对通胀和产出缺口水平而且对它们的波动也做出反应,因此,央行的反应函数将是潜在非线性的。利用该模型,本文用我国宏观数据对央行的货币政策反应函数和目标偏好非对称性进行了估计检验。

With data analysis,It shows that if the central bank＇s political target about inflation and output gap is symmetry partial,the linear Taylor rule is regarded as a special case of model conclusion.While if the central bank＇s political target is non-symmetry partial,the short-term nominal interest rate will respond not only to the inflation and output gap,but also to their fluctuation,and therefore,the responding function of central bank is potential non-linear.In this paper,I make an estimation and test of central bank＇s responding function of currency policy and non-symmetry of target partiality.