基于Markov模型的铝土矿露天采空区生态重建的环境预测评价

Environmental prediction assessment on ecological reconstruction of opencast bauxite goaf by Markov process model

采用景观生态空间结构预测分析法对平果铝土矿生态重建的环境影响进行评价;在建立空间格局变化定量指标的基础上,利用Markov过程稳定状态方程组的随机运动过程数学模型,对平果铝土矿生态重建地区环境影响进行预测评价。研究结果表明:2005年预测模拟值与实测情况基本吻合,当矿区复垦土地的裸岩地面积减少到占总土地面积的19.92%时,矿区生态系统达到稳定状态,Markov过程模型对喀斯特石漠化地区环境影响预测与评价是可行的。

Environmental impact assessment of ecological reconstruction in Pingguo Bauxite mainly was made using landscape ecological spatial structure prediction analysis that is based on the construction of spatial pattern varietals quantitative index.Using randomly moving process mathematical model of Markov process state equation,the environmental impact prediction assessment on Pingguo Bauxite ecological reconstruction area was studied.The results show that the predictive simulative values and real measurement results in 2005 are basically coincident,when the proportion of the reclaimed land area of bare rock to the total land reduces to 19.92%,the mining ecosystem will be stable,and Markov process model is feasible for environmental impact prediction assessment on karst rocky desertification area.