京津冀地区冬小麦气候生产潜力的一种动态区划

A dynamic division scheme of agro-climatic production potential for winter wheat in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province

以京津冀地区的冬小麦农业气候生产潜力为研究对象,根据统计检验聚类方法(CAST)与旋转主分量分析(RP-CA)相结合的气候分类区划新方法,对该区冬小麦气候生产潜力进行了区划试验,计算验证了理论与实际结果的一致性,从而进一步证明该方法的合理性及可靠性。同时也印证了CAST和RPCA用于气象场分类区划具有等价性和互补性的事实;此外,各分区具有不同的年际变化特征,也表明区划结果是合理的,从而较好地佐证了这一新的分区方法。

A new dynamic division scheme of the agro-climatic production potential for winter wheat was proposed by means of combination of a cluster analysis of statistic test（CAST） and rotating principal component analysis（RPCA） in Hebei province（including Beijing and Tianjin）.The results obtained from the new scheme are consistent with the real observational data obtained at each station.It has been shown that the new climatic division of production potential has universality and comparability,which is suitable for crop yielding estimation in different areas.Furthermore,the results show different inter-annual variations in the different areas and this implies that the new division scheme is more reasonable.